Economic Affects of Rising and Falling House Prices
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Rising house prices increase consumer wealth and are likely to be associated
with an increase in mortgage equity withdrawal. Mortgage equity withdrawal means
people remortgage and take out a bigger loan against the value of their house.
It means they have more money that they can spend and this leads to an increase
in consumer spending and therefore Aggregate demand.
Rising house prices can also increase consumer confidence. It encourages
people to take out other borrowings as they know that they can always release
equity from the value of their house if necessary.
Therefore rising house prices can be instrumental in raising consumer
spending and economic growth. Rising house prices can also be inflationary. This
will occur if increasing house prices cause economic growth to be unsustainable.
For example in the late 1980s rising house prices were a key factor in causing
the inflationary Lawson boom of 1989. However rising house prices do not always
cause inflation. If other components of economic growth are increasing at a slow
rate, house prices may not cause inflation. For example between 2001-2007 house
prices in the UK have been rising far quicker than the rate of inflation (which
has remained in governments target of 1-3%)
Affect of Falling House Prices
Falling house prices usually have a more powerful effect than rising house
People are used to rising house prices and the majority of homeowners donít
actually release the increased equity through remortgaging. However when house
prices fall it can trigger a large fall in consumer confidence. People view
falling house prices as a serious problem and in the past has been associated
with reductions in consumer spending as people become much more risk averse.
For those who have recently remortgaged or bought a house falling house
prices can lead to negative equity. Negative equity means the value of the house
is less than the outstanding mortgage debt. This is a real problem for those who
are struggling to meet mortgage repayments; there is no option to switch
mortgage deals and reduce monthly payments.
Again the effect of falling house prices depends upon other variables in the
For example falling house prices in 1991 was associated with a period of very
high interest rates. Therefore homeowners were faced with a twin problem of high
mortgage costs and falling house prices. If house prices fell in the UK in 2007
or 2008 real interest rates would likely be much lower. Furthermore the MPC
would be likely to cut interest rates as falling house prices reduced
About the Author
Richard Pettinger studied Politics and Economics at Lady Margaret Hall,
Oxford University. He now works as an economics teacher in Oxford. He enjoys
writing essays on Economic and he edits an Economics Blog focused on UK and US
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Article Published/Sorted/Amended on Scopulus 2007-05-30 01:09:29 in Economic Articles