Interest Rates and Housing Market
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Interest rates are the effective cost of borrowing money. In the UK, the base
rate (repo rate) is set by the Bank of England, Monetary Policy Committee. In
the US, interest rates are set by the federal reserve.
Central Banks usually set interest rates in order to try an meet an inflation
target. In the UK this inflation target is CPI = 2% + / - 1. Basically this
means that if inflation is forecast to rise above the target the Bank will raise
interest rates in order to reduce spending in the economy and therefore moderate
inflationary pressures.
How Interest Rates affect the Housing Market
1. Increased Mortgage Payments. An increase in interest rates will increase
monthly payments on a variable mortgage. A quarter point rise on a £140,000
mortgage can increase monthly payments by up to £30 per month.
2. Demand for Housing. Sustained Rise in Interest rates will affect the
affordability of paying a mortgage. As interest rates rise, buying a house
becomes less attractive and therefore demand falls. This can lead to falling
house prices. E.g. in 1992 interest rates rose to 15% causing house prices to
collapse in the UK.
Why Rising Interest rates may not cause House prices to Fall.
1. Time Lags. If you have a house and mortgage a rise in interest rates is
unlikely to make you sell your house, unless it becomes very serious. Generally
a rise in interest rates will not reduce demand straight away, it can take up to
18 months to have the full effect.
2. Confidence. If confidence is high, people may respond to rising interest
rates by continuing to spend money. This leads to a fall in the savings ratio
and demand for housing doesn’t fall.
3. Other Factors that affect Housing Market. Interest rates are an important
factor, however, it depends on basic supply and demand analysis. If there are
severe supply constraints (like in the UK) house prices may continue to rise,
even though interest rates are higher. 4. Real interest rates. It is important
to bear in mind that it is real interest rates, which affect the affordability
of housing. If interest rates are 10% but inflation is 9% the real interest rate
is only 1%. This means that although interest rates seem high, in practices the
real cost of borrowing is quite low.
Factors that determine effects of interest rates on Housing Market
5. Types of Mortgages. Rising interest rates are having a big impact on
America because of the high % of sub prime mortgages. This means that many
homeowners have got a mortgage by borrowing a high % of their disposable income.
In other countries, where mortgage lending is stricter, many homeowners would
have been unable to get such adverse mortgages. Therefore rising interest rates
can make the difference between being able to afford mortgage payments and
defaults.
6. In the UK rising house prices mean that more first time buyers are
borrowing up to 5 or 6 times income. Therefore, mortgage payments account for a
higher % of income.
7. It depends on ratio of Fixed vs Variable mortgages. If homeowners have a
fixed rate mortgage then rising interest rates will not have any effect; at
least until they come to renegotiate another fixed rate contract in 4 years
time. In Europe more homeowners have a fixed rate mortgage so the European
housing market is less sensitive to interest rate changes.
About the Author
R.Pettinger is an Economics teacher at Oxford and writes frequently on the
UK economy and mortgages. He edits a site about Mortgages including a guide to
different types of mortgages.
http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/
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Article Published/Sorted/Amended on Scopulus 2007-07-18 21:31:19 in Economic Articles
