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Recession Looms For US Economy


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1. Falling House Prices. After several years of a booming housing market. House prices are now starting to fall in most US states. Falling house prices will have a significant impact on consumer spending. As house prices fall, people can no longer remortgage to have extra capital to spend. Also falling house prices have a significant impact on consumer confidence. As housing is the biggest form of wealth it will adversely impact on the financial situation of most households. America's past growth has been maintained by strong consumer spending, if this falters economic growth is likely to do the same.

2. House Prices could have further to fall. Looking at historic house price to earnings ratios the average US house price has been overvalued for several years. For the house price to earnings ratios to return to normal, house prices may have to fall by more than 18%. Note the Japanese housing market provides a recent precedent for those who don’t believe house prices can fall for a long time.

3. Mortgage Lenders going Bust. Due to a record levels of default on sub prime mortgages, the number of mortgage lenders going out of business is at an all time high. This has also changed other financial markets attitude to risk. Banks and stock markets will be much less willing to lend on dubious terms. The net effect is that investment and consumer spending will grow much slower, or even start to fall.

4. Current Account Deficit. The US current account deficit is currently 6.5% of GDP. For a long time some economists have said there is nothing to worry about. The deficit so far has been financed by Chinese investors willing to buy US assets; even with a relatively low interest rate. However increasingly Chinese and Asian investors are seeking to diversify out of the US dollar. The dollar is losing its “safe haven” status. Partly because of events in Iraq and Afghanistan but also because of a realization that the US economy is not as dominant as it used to be in the past. If the Chinese start buying less US securities it will cause a further devaluation in the dollar and also require higher interest rates to attract people to buy sufficient US securities. The higher interest rates will exacerbate any fall in US consumer demand.

About the Author

Richard Pettinger studied Politics and Economics at Lady Margaret Hall, Oxford University. He now works as an economics teacher in Oxford. He enjoys writing essays on Economic and he edits an Economics Blog focused on UK and US economies:

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Article Published/Sorted/Amended on Scopulus 2007-03-16 23:58:42 in Economic Articles

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